Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4124
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4124 · STL → BWI
departs 6:33 AM CT · arrives 9:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/16 7%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 5%
Thu 11/19 6%
Fri 11/20 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.