Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4402 · SNA → PHX
departs 6:40 AM PT · arrives 9:06 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.