Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4476 · PHX → SEA
departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 6:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Mon 11/16 45%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 44%
Thu 11/19 66%
Fri 11/20 31%
Sat 11/21 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.