Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 463 · MCO → TYS
departs 2:40 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MCO that day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.