Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4944
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4944 · MCO → SJU
departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 11/16 40%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 40%
Fri 11/20 32%
Sat 11/21 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.