Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 712 · SDF → MCO
departs 12:51 PM ET · arrives 2:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 99%
Mon 11/16 12%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 27%
Fri 11/20 28%
Sat 11/21 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.