Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 975 · LAS → SDF
departs 10:25 AM PT · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 26%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±12 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.