Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
Y4 7841 · LAX → ZCL
departs 12:13 AM PT · arrives 5:20 AM CST
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Mon 11/16 16%
Tue 11/17
Thu 11/19 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ZCL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ZCL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Y4's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ZCL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.