Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3520
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
YX 3520 · SDF → ORD
departs 10:35 AM ET · arrives 11:22 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 11/16 10%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 23%
Thu 11/19 21%
Fri 11/20 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.