Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4532
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
YX 4532 · PHL → SDF
departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Mon 11/16 7%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 12%
Thu 11/19 13%
Sat 11/21 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.