Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 11, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 18
MQ 3791 · DFW → SDF
departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 12:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Mon 11/16 11%
Wed 11/18
Thu 11/19 15%
Fri 11/20 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.