Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 11, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 18
MQ 4196 · RST → ORD
departs 12:31 PM CT · arrives 1:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Mon 11/16 11%
Tue 11/17 9%
Wed 11/18
Thu 11/19 32%
Fri 11/20 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±4 pts
−26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
RST (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.