Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 11, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 18
YX 3477 · ORD → SDF
departs 7:06 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 11/16 6%
Tue 11/17 6%
Wed 11/18
Thu 11/19 11%
Fri 11/20 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
7am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.