Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 11, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3599
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 18
YX 3599 · EWR → SDF
departs 10:37 AM ET · arrives 1:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 11/16 10%
Tue 11/17 8%
Wed 11/18
Thu 11/19 19%
Fri 11/20 15%
Sat 11/21 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.