Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:36 pm at Albuquerque); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 21:30, is the safest bet: 53% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 21:30 → LAS 22:05WN 138	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 23:45 → BNA 05:22 +1WN 4088	6h 52m	78%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ABQ 21:30 → LAS 22:05WN 138	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 23:25 → BNA 05:00 +1WN 2191	6h 30m	71%	49%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 20:10 → SAN 21:00WN 4521	1h 40m San Diego	SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:38 +1WN 3626	7h 28m	61%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON