tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Albuquerque); 5 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: United via Denver, leaving 16:20, 61% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50UA 725 3h 20m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 7h 21m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08AA 9 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:56 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 7h 06m 93% 29%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 17:28 → DFW 20:23AA 3381 · flown by Envoy 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914 5h 30m 84% 25%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ABQ 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 5h 02m 32% 19%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 16:36 → ATL 21:59DL 1109 49m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 6h 21m 53% 13%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 17:28 → DFW 20:23AA 3381 · flown by Envoy 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 3h 56m 13% 4%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON