Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:38 pm at Aspen); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 36%). Best bet: United via Denver, leaving 15:25, 56% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	7h 34m	93%	56%
United Details →	ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	6h 31m	89%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Denver	DEN 18:04 → IAH 21:30UA 1055	5h 05m	64%	34%
United Details →	ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	4h 56m	57%	33%
United Details →	ASE 18:12 → DEN 19:25UA 6011 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	4h 47m	46%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON