Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 44% on a calm day. Safest: DL 818 at 22:54, 46%.

Safest bet today DL 818 ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 3097 ATL 17:12 → DFW 18:45 · 78% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 818 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	DFW 00:13	46%	8%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DFW 15:45	49%	14%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	DFW 22:11	56%	11%	0.9%	55%worse than usual
AA 1386 American Flight history →	ATL 15:02	DFW 16:35	58%	19%	1.3%	60%worse than usual
AA 3104 American Flight history →	ATL 15:11	DFW 16:39	58%	17%	1.3%	78%worse than usual
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:10	DFW 17:27	61%	14%	0.8%	72%worse than usual
AA 1008 American Flight history →	ATL 16:25	DFW 17:54	62%	14%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
DL 1827 Delta	ATL 17:44	DFW 19:05	63%	14%	1.0%	no record
DL 436 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	DFW 20:18	64%	17%	1.0%	67%worse than usual
AA 1356 American Flight history →	ATL 16:16	DFW 17:49	67%	15%	1.3%	41%
AA 2398 American	ATL 17:39	DFW 19:10	68%	19%	1.3%	no record
AA 1376 American Flight history →	ATL 17:34	DFW 19:08	69%	21%	1.4%	43%worse than usual
AA 1379 American Flight history →	ATL 20:05	DFW 21:36	70%	16%	1.3%	39%
AA 2403 American Flight history →	ATL 20:24	DFW 21:50	72%	15%	1.2%	59%worse than usual
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:12	DFW 18:45	78%	30%	2.2%	50%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON