Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 78%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: WN 564 at 22:50, 75%.

Safest bet today WN 564 ATL 22:50 → HOU 00:10 · 75% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2051 ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51 · 80% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 78% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 564 Southwest	ATL 22:50	HOU 00:10	75%	30%	0.6%	no record
WN 225 Southwest	ATL 20:40	HOU 21:56	79%	29%	0.6%	no record
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	HOU 21:51	80%	19%	0.9%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON