Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 74%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1562 at 23:29, 69%.

Safest bet today DL 1562 ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest WN 1679 ATL 20:01 → MCO 21:36 · 79% chance 15+ min late

Weather 74% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 20 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1562 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:29	MCO 01:05	69%	27%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	MCO 23:58	70%	24%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
DL 1733 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:25	MCO 23:02	74%	34%	0.6%	65%worse than usual
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:17	MCO 21:55	75%	36%	0.5%	61%worse than usual
DL 1302 Delta	ATL 21:38	MCO 23:08	75%	30%	0.6%	no record
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	MCO 22:15	75%	52%	1.5%	49%worse than usual
WN 1679 Southwest	ATL 20:01	MCO 21:36	79%	38%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON