Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 71%, against 45% on a calm day. Safest: DL 842 at 21:45, 63%.

Safest bet today DL 842 ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 250 ATL 20:55 → PHX 21:55 · 78% chance 15+ min late

Weather 71% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	PHX 22:39	63%	17%	0.3%	75%worse than usual
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:44	PHX 21:40	68%	20%	0.3%	no record
DL 757 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	PHX 21:34	69%	19%	0.3%	71%worse than usual
WN 224 Southwest	ATL 21:05	PHX 22:00	75%	23%	0.2%	no record
WN 250 Southwest	ATL 20:55	PHX 21:55	78%	25%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON