Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at Atlanta); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 17:58, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 2136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:59	SJC 18:52	42%	6%	0.5%	79%worse than usual
DL 933 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SJC 22:49	44%	7%	0.4%	85%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087	9h 04m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	8h 44m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	93%	72%
Alaska Details →	ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783	1h 06m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678	8h 21m	77%	65%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:26DL 301	3h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:13DL 1420	9h 33m	98%	62%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:45 → LAX 17:22DL 1219	3h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 20:59 → SJC 22:13DL 3073	9h 28m	97%	61%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	2h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	91%	59%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	11h 10m	99%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	7h 05m	60%	47%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:26DL 301	51m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	45%	29%
American Details →	ATL 17:34 → DFW 19:08AA 1376	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:15 → SJC 22:10AA 364	7h 36m	39%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON