Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 70%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: WN 424 at 20:45, 58%.

Safest bet today WN 424 AUS 20:45 → ATL 00:10 · 58% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1491 AUS 18:24 → ATL 21:59 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 70% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 424 Southwest	AUS 20:45	ATL 00:10	58%	18%	0.2%	no record
WN 334 Southwest	AUS 18:54	ATL 22:12	75%	27%	0.2%	no record
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:24	ATL 21:59	75%	25%	0.4%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON