Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:31 am at San Francisco Bay Area); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: UA 686 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet today UA 686 SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2078 SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	9%	2%	0.2%	95%
WN 3673 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 08:35	HOU 14:25	16%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	16%	3%	0.2%	89%
WN 3809 Southwest	SJC 07:56	HOU 13:40	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2114 Southwest	OAK 08:20	HOU 14:10	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3271 Southwest	OAK 08:16	HOU 14:03	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2464 United	SFO 18:27	IAH 00:25	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1649 United	SFO 17:09	IAH 23:07	24%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	IAH 22:52	26%	5%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
UA 2831 United	SFO 14:36	IAH 20:42	28%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	28%	3%	0.2%	61%
UA 2002 United Flight history →	SFO 14:28	IAH 20:40	29%	4%	0.2%	71%
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	31%	4%	0.2%	78%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	SJC 13:10	IAH 19:05	39%	8%	0.3%	78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:35 → LAS 08:05WN 2830	58m Las Vegas	LAS 09:03 → HOU 14:09WN 2299	5h 34m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON