Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:29 pm at Birmingham); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3656 at 17:20, 56%.

Nonstops today


WN 3656 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 17:20	MCO 20:05	56%	29%	0.6%	55%worse than usual
WN 463 Southwest	BHM 18:56	MCO 21:38	56%	34%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BHM 17:26 → MIA 20:28AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Miami	MIA 22:51 → MCO 00:04 +1AA 3174	5h 38m	94%	60%
American Details →	BHM 15:48 → MIA 19:02AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Miami	MIA 21:22 → MCO 22:35AA 875	5h 47m	80%	51%
American Details →	BHM 14:45 → CLT 17:29AA 5075 · flown by PSA	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MCO 22:00AA 3200	6h 15m	85%	42%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 +1DL 1562	6h 38m	95%	40%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:25 → MCO 23:02DL 1733	6h 02m	90%	32%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:17AA 2186	6h 05m	29%	11%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	46m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881	3h 35m	27%	7%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:17 → MCO 21:55DL 1735	3h 28m	22%	6%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON