Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3629
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3629 · BHM → MIA
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 35%
Wed 10/7 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at BHM that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.52 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.