Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3629
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3629 · BHM → MIA
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 27%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 36%
Fri 10/9 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from BHM are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.