Today: WN 295 at 12:05 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet today WN 295 BNA 12:05 → LAS 14:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3777 BNA 13:54 → LAS 16:01 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 295 Southwest	BNA 12:05	LAS 14:04	20%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 585 Southwest	BNA 22:42	LAS 00:45	31%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2475 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:40	LAS 16:35	35%	5%	0.1%	80%worse than usual
WN 1946 Southwest	BNA 16:00	LAS 17:59	38%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 1243 Southwest	BNA 18:30	LAS 20:31	38%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 548 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:55	LAS 21:50	38%	7%	0.2%	42%
F9 3777 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 13:54	LAS 16:01	40%	11%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON