Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 39–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 4779 BNA 19:45 → MIA 23:06 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 323 BNA 18:45 → MIA 22:09 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4779 Southwest	BNA 19:45	MIA 23:06	39%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 4069 Southwest	BNA 19:00	MIA 22:25	43%	13%	0.5%	no record
AA 1452 American Flight history →	BNA 18:39	MIA 22:04	44%	14%	0.6%	45%
AA 487 American Flight history →	BNA 16:41	MIA 20:04	45%	13%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BNA 17:32	MIA 20:59	45%	14%	0.5%	36%
AA 323 American Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MIA 22:09	45%	14%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON