Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: WN 662 at 19:21, 60%.

Safest bet today WN 662 BNA 19:21 → MSY 21:04 · 60% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 597 BNA 22:50 → MSY 00:25 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 662 Southwest	BNA 19:21	MSY 21:04	60%	19%	0.3%	no record
WN 2467 Southwest	BNA 22:30	MSY 00:12	62%	12%	0.3%	no record
WN 4475 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:00	MSY 21:35	63%	19%	0.3%	56%worse than usual
WN 597 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:50	MSY 00:25	67%	13%	0.3%	53%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON