tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:49 pm at Nashville); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Portland, leaving 16:43, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 33% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BNA 16:43 → PDX 19:33AS 1350 2h 01m Portland PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:05 +1AS 534 9h 22m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:35 → CLT 19:05AA 3291 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 20:43 → ONT 22:34AA 3036 7h 59m 88% 52%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:05 → PHX 19:40WN 642 3h 07m Phoenix PHX 22:47 → ONT 00:11 +1WN 3223 8h 06m 97% 43%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:36 → DFW 18:53AA 1522 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:40 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 9h 19m 98% 41%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 16:40 → DEN 18:40WN 504 2h 30m Denver DEN 21:10 → ONT 22:30WN 1663 7h 50m 81% 39%
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:45 → DFW 20:02AA 1496 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534 8h 14m 92% 36%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 7h 19m 79% 24%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 19:34 → SLC 22:10DL 2209 49m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 14m 33% 25%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:05 → PHX 19:40WN 642 50m Phoenix PHX 20:30 → ONT 21:40WN 2436 5h 35m 37% 14%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:40 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 6h 21m 33% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON