tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:46 am at Nashville)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:59, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 725 Southwest BNA 17:55 SJC 20:48 39% 9% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BNA 16:43 → PDX 19:33AS 1350 1h 57m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 8h 38m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:13DL 1420 9h 14m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic 2h 54m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 42m 100% 66%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 17:20 → LAX 19:40WN 551 2h 30m Los Angeles LAX 22:10 → SJC 23:33WN 2596 8h 13m 99% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:10 → SLC 17:45WN 4791 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 19:35 → SJC 20:40WN 9003 7h 30m 94% 61%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 57m 98% 59%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:05 → PHX 19:40WN 642 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 22:00 → SJC 23:55WN 255 7h 50m 94% 57%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 58m 94% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 25m 46% 35%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 7h 44m 39% 26%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:50 → SAN 18:00WN 4253 50m San Diego SAN 18:50 → SJC 20:25WN 222 6h 35m 50% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON