Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Boston); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:57, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 33% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 445 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:45	SLC 22:11	39%	11%	0.1%	72%worse than usual
B6 247 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:32	SLC 22:59	62%	15%	0.4%	58%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BOS 16:57 → DEN 19:45UA 800	1h 20m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	80%	44%
American Details →	BOS 17:52 → DFW 21:20AA 1577	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	8h 44m	77%	29%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BOS 17:20 → DEN 20:00WN 742	59m Denver	DEN 20:59 → SLC 22:33WN 4270	7h 13m	51%	20%
American Details →	BOS 18:23 → DFW 21:40AA 1401	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	8h 13m	53%	20%
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	48m Philadelphia	PHL 19:37 → SLC 22:33AA 2630	7h 28m	33%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON