Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:49 pm at Boston); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 819 at 18:46, 49%.

Nonstops today


WN 819 Southwest	BOS 18:46	STL 20:54	49%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 754 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 18:50	STL 20:55	51%	13%	0.1%	42%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BOS 18:16 → ORD 20:10AA 2837	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 23:14 → STL 00:44 +1AA 3069	7h 28m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609	6h 27m	80%	60%
American Details →	BOS 18:30 → ORD 20:59AA 1554	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → STL 00:16 +1AA 1004	6h 46m	82%	55%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → ATL 21:07DL 2464	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 58m	85%	22%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BOS 20:00 → BNA 21:45WN 2338	55m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → STL 23:55WN 682	4h 55m	39%	19%
American Details →	BOS 17:52 → DFW 21:20AA 1577	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 23:58AA 3049	7h 06m	40%	16%
Delta Details →	BOS 19:10 → ATL 22:24DL 973	46m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	5h 43m	28%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON