Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:24 pm at Burbank); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 20:05, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 20:05 → LAS 21:20WN 799	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 23:45 → BNA 05:22 +1WN 4088	7h 17m	90%	62%
United Details →	BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854	2h 09m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37 +1UA 1815	8h 15m	89%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 20:50 → SMF 22:15WN 854	50m Sacramento	SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:13 +1WN 3895	6h 23m	54%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON