Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:39 pm at Burbank)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 18:42, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	2h 57m San Francisco	SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646	9h 55m	92%	64%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:50 → LAS 20:00WN 794	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2208	7h 55m	79%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 19:20 → SMF 20:40WN 853	1h 00m Sacramento	SMF 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3622	7h 15m	65%	39%
United Details →	BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854	50m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340	7h 48m	54%	39%
Southwest Details →	BUR 20:05 → LAS 21:20WN 799	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2208	6h 40m	45%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON