Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:17 am at Burbank); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 3682 at 13:35, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3682 Southwest	BUR 13:35	DAL 18:40	33%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 10:50 → OAK 12:05WN 803	3h 10m Oakland	OAK 15:15 → DAL 20:40WN 4046	7h 50m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	BUR 13:40 → SMF 15:00WN 851	3h 15m Sacramento	SMF 18:15 → DAL 23:37WN 2876	7h 57m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	BUR 12:10 → PHX 13:45WN 816	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 16:05 → DAL 20:30WN 1390	6h 20m	100%	54%
Southwest Details →	BUR 09:30 → LAS 10:40WN 4724	1h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 12:22 → DAL 17:07WN 2273	5h 37m	100%	51%
Southwest Details →	BUR 13:00 → LAS 14:15WN 790	3h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 17:55 → DAL 22:45WN 2220	7h 45m	100%	50%
Southwest Details →	BUR 14:30 → LAS 15:40WN 4370	3h 08m Las Vegas	LAS 18:48 → DAL 23:32WN 4687	7h 02m	100%	48%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:25 → LAS 16:35WN 791	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 18:45 → DAL 23:30WN 2782	6h 05m	89%	43%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:55 → PHX 17:25WN 819	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 18:35 → DAL 23:06WN 3365	5h 11m	78%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON