Today: AA 2599 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45–46%.

Safest bet today AA 2599 BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1208 BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:34 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2599 American Flight history →	BUR 07:01	DFW 12:19	23%	6%	1.9%	92%worse than usual
AA 1617 American Flight history →	BUR 12:57	DFW 18:22	45%	16%	1.4%	69%worse than usual
AA 1208 American Flight history →	BUR 12:23	DFW 17:34	46%	16%	1.4%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON