tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:09 pm at Burbank)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 16:13, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 10h 46m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 29m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49UA 1374 8h 01m 84% 48%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → FLL 23:58AA 1393 8h 36m 91% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 44m 55% 31%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → FLL 22:52AA 2946 7h 30m 65% 27%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:09 → FLL 23:17AA 1847 7h 20m 31% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON