tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:18 am at Burbank)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 46m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BUR 18:38 → PHX 20:19AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 50m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 44m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 9h 57m 93% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Phoenix PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205 9h 38m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:01 → MIA 00:02 +1AA 2090 8h 40m 90% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 8h 17m 67% 53%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 8h 00m 64% 39%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:12 → MIA 22:59AA 1824 7h 02m 35% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON