Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Burbank); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 649 at 18:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 649 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:10	PDX 20:25	19%	4%	0.4%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 15:19 → STS 16:55AS 3093 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Santa Rosa	STS 18:40 → PDX 20:28AS 3371 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	3h 58m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	7h 28m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	6h 50m	98%	79%
United Details →	BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357	3h 09m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	6h 35m	98%	74%
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	2h 42m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	6h 08m	91%	67%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:00 → SMF 19:25WN 3474	2h 21m Sacramento	SMF 21:46 → PDX 23:27WN 3492	5h 27m	88%	62%
Southwest Details →	BUR 17:45 → OAK 19:00WN 806	3h 15m Oakland	OAK 22:15 → PDX 23:55WN 1150	6h 10m	98%	58%
Southwest Details →	BUR 19:20 → SMF 20:40WN 853	1h 30m Sacramento	SMF 22:10 → PDX 23:40WN 1148	4h 20m	86%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	57m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	4h 28m	47%	38%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:35 → SJC 19:45WN 840	50m San Jose	SJC 20:35 → PDX 22:15WN 2554	3h 40m	34%	19%
Alaska Details →	BUR 19:58 → SEA 22:39AS 347	47m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	4h 24m	23%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON