Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:24 pm at Baltimore)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 14:40, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 14:40 → BNA 15:35WN 3245	3h 36m Nashville	BNA 19:11 → BUR 21:44WN 224	10h 04m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	BWI 14:10 → ABQ 16:10WN 4528	3h 00m Albuquerque	ABQ 19:10 → BUR 20:10WN 2883	9h 00m	99%	63%
Southwest Details →	BWI 16:10 → LAS 18:15WN 975	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 20:45 → BUR 22:01WN 2261	8h 51m	100%	61%
Southwest Details →	BWI 14:40 → PHX 16:30WN 1050	3h 30m Phoenix	PHX 20:00 → BUR 21:25WN 3248	9h 45m	100%	52%
American Details →	BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597	9h 12m	86%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BWI 17:35 → LAS 19:40WN 976	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 20:45 → BUR 22:01WN 2261	7h 26m	74%	45%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012	55m Denver	DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411	7h 20m	69%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON