Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:17 pm at Baltimore); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1005 at 20:30, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1005 Southwest	BWI 20:30	PBI 23:10	42%	12%	3.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	7h 51m	97%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BWI 20:18 → CLT 21:55AA 1637	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	4h 33m	57%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON