Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 pm at Baltimore); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56% (calm day: 38%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 18:07, 33% on time.

Nonstops today


AS 1369 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 16:19	PDX 18:56	24%	8%	0.4%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BWI 18:07 → SEA 21:00AS 379	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	9h 15m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	BWI 17:35 → LAS 19:40WN 976	3h 03m Las Vegas	LAS 22:43 → PDX 01:04 +1WN 2297	10h 29m	94%	63%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012	3h 12m Denver	DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770	9h 50m	96%	62%
American Details →	BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → PDX 23:42AA 2298	10h 56m	90%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738	7h 58m	53%	43%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	55m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 21m	54%	38%
Southwest Details →	BWI 19:45 → LAS 21:55WN 977	48m Las Vegas	LAS 22:43 → PDX 01:04 +1WN 2297	8h 19m	51%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON