tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:49 pm at Columbia); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 19:45, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CAE 19:45 → IAD 21:24UA 4259 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 10m Dulles IAD 23:34 → EWR 01:05 +1UA 3916 5h 20m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → CAE 17:50 → ORD 19:08UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 03m 89% 63%
UnitedDetails → CAE 17:41 → ORD 19:05UA 4400 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 5h 58m 76% 51%
DeltaDetails → CAE 17:59 → ATL 19:16DL 3032 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 6h 59m 96% 40%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CAE 17:50 → ORD 19:08UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest 59m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 5h 49m 55% 40%
DeltaDetails → CAE 19:39 → ATL 20:56DL 1516 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 5h 19m 73% 30%
DeltaDetails → CAE 18:01 → ATL 19:13DL 2153 55m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527 4h 28m 59% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON