Today: WN 3790 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–54%.

Safest bet today WN 3790 MDW 09:55 → DAL 12:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2281 ORD 21:26 → DFW 23:48 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3790 Southwest	MDW 09:55	DAL 12:10	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2865 Southwest	MDW 12:26	DAL 14:49	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	18%	4%	0.4%	79%
WN 4098 Southwest	MDW 11:01	DAL 13:24	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3052 American Flight history →	ORD 09:40	DFW 12:13	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 1459 American	ORD 09:58	DFW 12:28	21%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 488 Southwest	MDW 13:40	DAL 16:00	21%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 2222 American Flight history →	ORD 11:00	DFW 13:33	24%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 3538 Southwest	MDW 15:26	DAL 17:50	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	26%	7%	0.3%	77%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	26%	6%	0.3%	76%
UA 685 United Flight history →	ORD 12:20	DFW 15:03	26%	6%	0.3%	74%
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 11:02	DFW 13:34	26%	9%	0.5%	41%
AA 3264 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	DFW 14:34	26%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 2451 American	ORD 13:49	DFW 16:20	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 15:11	DFW 17:48	27%	7%	0.4%	73%
AA 2257 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	DFW 17:35	28%	8%	0.4%	65%
AA 1120 American Flight history →	ORD 13:25	DFW 15:59	28%	8%	0.4%	49%
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:17	DFW 21:56	28%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:22	DFW 14:51	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 309 United	ORD 14:35	DFW 17:10	30%	7%	0.3%	no record
WN 1410 Southwest	MDW 18:36	DAL 21:00	31%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 16:14	DFW 18:46	32%	10%	0.4%	73%
AA 2754 American Flight history →	ORD 15:49	DFW 18:25	33%	9%	0.4%	63%
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:12	DFW 15:48	33%	11%	1.2%	72%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	33%	9%	0.3%	68%
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:32	DFW 20:05	36%	11%	0.4%	56%
WN 2893 Southwest	MDW 21:16	DAL 23:40	36%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2988 American Flight history →	ORD 16:51	DFW 19:28	36%	11%	0.4%	46%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	37%	9%	0.8%	65%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:18	DFW 20:55	37%	11%	0.4%	41%
F9 2999 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 12:45	DFW 15:18	39%	13%	1.3%	64%
WN 998 Southwest	MDW 21:05	DAL 23:25	41%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 1887 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 21:27	DFW 23:59	42%	17%	1.2%	73%worse than usual
AA 2600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	DFW 23:32	45%	12%	1.2%	52%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:26	DFW 23:48	54%	12%	1.2%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON