Today: UA 1304 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet today UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 2947 MDW 18:11 → ONT 20:29 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	13%	3%	0.2%	79%
WN 2335 Southwest	MDW 11:01	LGB 13:47	14%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	14%	4%	0.2%	82%
WN 2526 Southwest	MDW 10:51	BUR 13:20	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1091 Southwest	MDW 10:00	LAX 12:20	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 2679 American Flight history →	ORD 08:14	SNA 10:33	15%	4%	0.2%	87%
WN 673 Southwest	MDW 10:26	LAX 12:42	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	15%	4%	0.2%	70%
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAX 11:21	17%	5%	0.2%	74%
UA 1044 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	LAX 13:08	17%	4%	0.2%	81%
WN 4413 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:10	LGB 13:20	17%	2%	0.2%	69%
AA 1920 American	ORD 08:28	SNA 10:20	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2170 United	ORD 10:27	LAX 12:40	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	19%	4%	0.2%	83%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:14	LAX 14:36	21%	4%	0.2%	79%
AA 2718 American Flight history →	ORD 12:29	LAX 14:50	21%	4%	0.2%	73%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	21%	4%	0.1%	68%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	22%	4%	0.2%	80%
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:57	LAX 16:19	24%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 1916 American	ORD 12:03	SNA 14:32	25%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:59	25%	4%	0.2%	70%
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	26%	6%	0.2%	59%
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	26%	5%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
AA 2640 American Flight history →	ORD 11:59	SNA 14:19	26%	6%	0.2%	73%
UA 542 United	ORD 15:23	LAX 17:51	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	26%	6%	0.2%	76%
UA 1107 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:52	26%	4%	0.2%	69%
AA 519 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	SNA 19:27	26%	4%	0.3%	63%
WN 655 Southwest	MDW 15:35	BUR 17:55	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 600 United Flight history →	ORD 16:45	LAX 19:16	28%	7%	0.2%	68%
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SNA 20:22	28%	4%	0.3%	74%
WN 2798 Southwest	MDW 22:15	ONT 00:30	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1660 Southwest	MDW 17:41	LAX 19:59	30%	9%	0.1%	no record
UA 2060 United	ORD 21:30	LAX 00:09	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2298 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:35	LAX 21:12	31%	7%	0.1%	76%
WN 188 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:30	LAX 20:50	33%	10%	0.1%	47%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	ORD 17:10	LAX 19:33	33%	8%	0.2%	55%
UA 2494 United	ORD 17:00	LAX 19:31	33%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 19:07	LAX 21:27	33%	7%	0.1%	no record
UA 658 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	ONT 22:51	33%	10%	0.6%	60%
F9 2445 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:13	LAX 23:57	33%	13%	1.3%	65%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	34%	7%	0.6%	58%
AA 1114 American	ORD 21:19	LAX 23:49	34%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1209 American Flight history →	ORD 22:30	LAX 00:52	35%	8%	0.8%	53%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	35%	8%	0.2%	59%
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:26	35%	8%	0.2%	58%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	36%	7%	0.2%	69%
AA 613 American Flight history →	ORD 20:49	LAX 23:13	37%	10%	0.8%	51%
WN 246 Southwest	MDW 22:31	LAX 00:51	37%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2947 Southwest	MDW 18:11	ONT 20:29	38%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON