Today: WN 2464 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet today WN 2464 MDW 09:00 → MIA 13:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest WN 3073 MDW 19:56 → FLL 23:56 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2464 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:00	MIA 13:00	11%	3%	0.2%	66%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	16%	5%	0.2%	76%
AA 1474 American Flight history →	ORD 10:05	MIA 14:18	17%	6%	0.2%	82%
UA 2635 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	FLL 18:15	17%	5%	0.2%	69%
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MIA 14:57	17%	5%	0.3%	77%
AA 2689 American	ORD 10:07	MIA 14:09	18%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4854 Southwest	MDW 12:56	FLL 16:57	18%	6%	0.3%	no record
UA 1294 United	ORD 12:22	FLL 16:26	21%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 672 American Flight history →	ORD 12:18	FLL 16:26	22%	7%	0.2%	56%
AA 2881 American Flight history →	ORD 17:08	FLL 21:26	23%	6%	0.3%	62%
WN 4899 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:25	FLL 18:25	25%	7%	0.2%	51%
AA 3148 American Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MIA 18:49	26%	6%	0.3%	51%
AA 2275 American Flight history →	ORD 13:51	PBI 18:03	26%	8%	3.9%	70%
UA 2342 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PBI 15:01	27%	8%	5.0%	72%
AA 1431 American Flight history →	ORD 14:31	MIA 18:33	28%	6%	0.3%	77%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	28%	11%	0.6%	67%
AA 1159 American	ORD 19:11	MIA 23:31	28%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 463 United	ORD 18:05	FLL 22:16	28%	5%	0.3%	no record
UA 2180 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	MIA 22:27	31%	7%	0.6%	69%
AA 3040 American	ORD 17:40	MIA 22:03	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2323 American Flight history →	ORD 16:44	MIA 21:07	31%	6%	0.6%	61%
AA 2690 American Flight history →	ORD 17:59	MIA 22:20	32%	6%	0.6%	45%
WN 2777 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:15	FLL 23:15	33%	8%	0.2%	45%
WN 3073 Southwest	MDW 19:56	FLL 23:56	34%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON