Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Cleveland); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5641 at 17:50, 31%.

Nonstops today


DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:50	BOS 19:58	31%	12%	0.5%	71%
B6 640 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 17:25	BOS 19:11	52%	20%	0.5%	63%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	7h 09m	95%	72%
United Details →	CLE 16:14 → ORD 16:59UA 3575 · flown by Republic	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → BOS 23:42UA 1365	7h 28m	94%	54%
Southwest Details →	CLE 17:45 → BWI 19:05WN 4295	3h 26m Baltimore	BWI 22:31 → BOS 00:01 +1WN 3018	6h 16m	98%	51%
American Details →	CLE 17:39 → DCA 19:11AA 5470 · flown by PSA	3h 19m Washington	DCA 22:30 → BOS 23:59AA 4051 · flown by Envoy	6h 20m	88%	50%
United Details →	CLE 19:55 → IAD 21:19UA 3433 · flown by Republic	51m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → BOS 23:59UA 755	4h 04m	80%	49%
Delta Details →	CLE 18:37 → ATL 20:43DL 880	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 43m	86%	46%
Delta Details →	CLE 16:15 → LGA 18:00DL 5242 · flown by Endeavor	3h 59m New York	LGA 21:59 → BOS 23:14DL 5839 · flown by Republic	6h 59m	98%	44%
American Details →	CLE 17:05 → JFK 18:59AA 4389 · flown by Republic	3h 25m New York	JFK 22:24 → BOS 23:51AA 4659 · flown by Republic	6h 46m	90%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLE 19:59 → DTW 21:04DL 4957 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 21:59 → BOS 23:59DL 1187	4h 00m	51%	28%
United Details →	CLE 19:08 → EWR 20:45UA 554	50m Newark	EWR 21:35 → BOS 23:02UA 1117	3h 54m	44%	17%
American Details →	CLE 17:12 → PHL 18:47AA 5129 · flown by PSA	49m Philadelphia	PHL 19:36 → BOS 21:10AA 3327	3h 58m	49%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON