Today: UA 3633 at 17:42 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–48%.

Safest bet today UA 3633 CLE 17:42 → EWR 19:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 554 CLE 19:08 → EWR 20:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3633 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:42	EWR 19:30	33%	12%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
YX 3658 Republic	CLE 17:17	EWR 19:19	35%	14%	1.0%	no record
UA 1274 United	CLE 19:18	EWR 21:10	47%	15%	0.5%	no record
UA 554 United Flight history →	CLE 19:08	EWR 20:45	48%	16%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON